The End of the PDA As We Know It

The primary purpose of the personal digital assistant has changed several times in its relatively brief history. It started as a convenient electronic calendar and address book. As the power of the hardware and software increased, it changed into a general purpose computer with nearly all the features of a well-equipped desktop computer. It appears that its purpose is on the verge of changing once again. With the rise of inexpensive sensors to monitor the environment and transmit data to networks, the PDA is likely to become a specialized device that behaves as both a server and a client in large "pervasive" computing environments. The present trend to continually increase the power and functionality of the PDA could be replaced by one to make it smaller, less expensive, more functionally specialized, and disposable.

The PDA isn't going away although sales have leveled off, due in part to the rising popularity of smartphones, the new constantly connected PDAs should provide a bright future. These new PDAs will look decidedly different than today's handhelds. The full-featured, palm-sized unit with a small screen and a stylus for entering data will likely morph into a variety of form factors designed for vertical markets and specialized uses. Already we see PDA functionality in cell phones using Microsoft, Palm, and Symbian operating systems. Many confirmed PDA users are switching to the smart cell phone as a convenient way to have both personal organizer and phone functions in one easy-to-carry device. This convergence of cell phones and PDAs will likely continue unabated for the foreseeable future. But, this is but a preview of things to come.

A PDA in the future will be defined more as a set of services than as a piece of hardware. What the consumer will want is his contacts, schedule, calendar, monitoring information, and other PDA-type data presented to him on whatever device he has at that moment from whatever source that contains the data. Communications will be provided by a vast network of wireless and wire-line services. Hardware components found in current PDAs will be separated from each other and will communicate wirelessly via Bluetooth and other standards.

Present-day wearable computers are not typically used for PDA functions but they could be. Such specialized computers exemplify the separation of components from each other. The screen is a small piece of glass or plastic held in front of the eye by a boom connected to one's glasses; the hard disk is a small unit worn on the belt, and the server is on a traditional network. The data and programs travel among the physically separated components wirelessly. As the components become ever smaller and less obtrusive, one's personal information will be made available at all times, in all places, with others barely aware of the presence of the device. By contrast, data on the present day PDA is not always available and, for the most part, only data that can be stored on the device itself is readily viewable.

The small screen of the PDA, a feature that has long constricted the widespread adoption of handhelds by the consumer, will get significantly larger soon, and likely be separated from other hardware components. Working flexible displays are already in existence, and soon they will be foldable and rollable (see Jeffrey Wales, "Large, Flexible, Lower-Power Displays Coming to the Pocket PC," Pocket PC magazine, July 2003, http://www.PocketPCmag.com/jul03/e_screens.asp).

Some components that provide PDA functions will be in the network rather than on the user. The user will have a "thin" client that downloads programs, services, and data on an as-needed basis, and pay monthly fees set by what services are purchased. These thin PDA clients will be smaller, lighter, and less power-hungry than today's handhelds. Also, because of their lower cost, they will become disposable. With technical advances, personal computing components are being woven into clothing (see below). Such unobtrusive, convenient personal computing power will further redefine the form, cost, and function of future PDAs.

RFID tags—pervasive sensors